Correlating skill and chance
Michael J. Mauboussin on luck’s perceived role in determining outcomes:
When we enjoy a good outcome due to luck, we are naturally inclined to chalk up our success to skill. Similarly, if we suffer an adverse outcome because of poor skill, we blame our bad luck.</p>
It’s a great article. Really.
But I think Gary Player, probably my favorite personality to ever play the game of golf, has already figured things out:
I was practicing in a bunker down in Texas and this good old boy with a big hat stopped to watch. The first shot he saw me hit went in the hole. He said, “You got 50 bucks if you knock the next one in.” I holed the next one. Then he says, “You got $100 if you hole the next one.” In it went for three in a row. As he peeled off the bills he said, “Boy, I’ve never seen anyone so lucky in my life.” And I shot back, “Well, the harder I practice, the luckier I get.”